Football Epilogue

 So my data obsessed side has me still recording and plotting data from the MN Covid Situation Update page . It's largely to see how things continue to play out. Here are a couple of key points: The new case rate is holding steady around 5.2 %. This rate seems to hold regardless of the number of new tests administered: Hospitalizations and ICU numbers are also holding relatively constant in the low 300s and mid 100s, respectively: The data has "positive tests" and a "no longer needing isolation" values. Taking these data (probably overly simplistically) as sick versus cured their difference shows a clear second wave, of which we are about where the first wave peaked: Deaths appear to be accelerating ( plot on MN Covid website ) The percent of deaths from assisted living facilities continues to decline and is now below 75% of total deaths. Likely from the virus largely having run its course through the facilities To me, this data is saying a few things: B...

UPDATE: I found a severe issue in this original calculation. I neglected to normalize to the number of tests being administered. Please disregard the crossed-out below graph. Here is an updated version showing the peak of infection rates as being at June 2nd. Likewise deaths are increased to around 2,500 and total cases is also revised up ~10x. What follows here is the old data/report. Conditions can change, especially if social distancing restrictions are relaxed, but here is some fitting on the cumulative covid19 positive test cases.  A logistic fit yields excellent agreement over the whole curve. If the fit is to be believed, doing a little calculus and differentiating the fit curve shows that we are just passed the peak (i.e. inflection point) in number of new cases per day. Keeping up with some social distancing shows things really slowing down in early may. Note that the curve is asymmetric, so the way down is longer than the way up. According to...

It is interesting that we can get a daily account of the number of cases of Covid19. For the most part we get a reporting of the total number of cases and the number of new cases.  Being I live in Minnesota, I track this data the most. As reported in the news, testing is limited and the data likely does not reflect the true coronavirus infections; testing seems to focus on capturing the worst cases. Still, there are some interesting things to tease out, even if you're playing with just the news reported data. My disclaimer here is that I'm doing minimal analysis and really when it's this early in the "pandemic" I'm trying not to let the "Belief in Small Numbers" [Kahneman and Tversky 1971] cause me to jump to any conclusions.  Also, I apologize that my graphs aren't as fancy as, say, the Star Tribune's or the Johns Hopkins app. Frankly, I'm feeling kind of lazy towards a fancy visualization tonight. Looking at the total num...

Welcome to the Greater Depression. Image from Yahoo! Finance on 3/16/2020

https://images.app.goo.gl/tEyLpeqTjwtUq2U28