Tuesday, April 7, 2020

Has Minnesota Peaked? UPDATED

UPDATE: I found a severe issue in this original calculation. I neglected to normalize to the number of tests being administered. Please disregard the crossed-out below graph.

Here is an updated version showing the peak of infection rates as being at June 2nd. Likewise deaths are increased to around 2,500 and total cases is also revised up ~10x.

What follows here is the old data/report.

Conditions can change, especially if social distancing restrictions are relaxed, but here is some fitting on the cumulative covid19 positive test cases. 

A logistic fit yields excellent agreement over the whole curve. If the fit is to be believed, doing a little calculus and differentiating the fit curve shows that we are just passed the peak (i.e. inflection point) in number of new cases per day. Keeping up with some social distancing shows things really slowing down in early may. Note that the curve is asymmetric, so the way down is longer than the way up.

According to the fit, the number of cases in MN will top out at 2,300 max. Well within the hospitalization resources if all people needed it. 

It appears that the recent "non-essential" closures were of small impact to the curve, but school/event closure did really help. Also, the April 10 date seems to have been a well chosen stay at home time. Re-evaluation should give serious consideration to loosening restrictions on local outdoor activities (golf, youth sports), then to partial attendance school (e.g. group A in class MW, B on TR, C on F).

Some of this is hopeful as overall health and safety should come first. Until then stay home, stay safe and wear your ppe!

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