Minnesota Covid-19 Data, Updated Daily by 2pm

The Covid-19 pandemic has created a fascinating trove of near real-time data acquisition. Trends can be observed as precautions such as social distancing become conscript. More importantly, it's data that affects our lives.

 This page looks graphically at the Covid-19 statistics for Minnesota and is taken from the Minnesota Department of Health Covid-19 situation website. The data is graphed to give more context to the overall situation. This includes (graph 1) co-graphing of different key parameters as well as (graph 2) providing a measure of number of cases versus tests and lastly (graph 3) showing the cases as a function of population density.


Graphs 1 and 2

Graphs 1 and 2 shows a summary of the same Covid-19 data plotted on a log scale (Graph 1) and a linear scale (Graph 2). Total MN cases versus date in blue. The red dots indicate increases in mandated social distancing on March 15th and March 28th. There is a notable bend on March 15th due to the first wave of distancing that included the shut down of dine-in establishments. The March 28th additional distancing efforts are still too early to show their effect.

There appears to be a second, less pronounced, bend on March 23rd. This correlates with a glut of testing results, with the number of tests jumping from 5,812 to 11,475. There seems to be no behavior correlation beyond this increased testing.

Plotted with the cumulative cases data is the number of recoveries, current hospitalizations and number of deaths. Recoveries is about 50% (note the vertical log scale) of cases. Hospitalizations are increasing. 43% (or 24) of current hospitalizations are in intensive care.

Minnesota has roughly 10x ICU capacity (240 beds, taken from Gov. Walz's updates). If a linear day-to-ICU intake relationship is assumed an additional 7.3 ICU beds will be required each day. At that rate it will take 30 days from March 30 to fill all Minnesota ICU beds.

The last data are the number of deaths. An age demographic should be shown here soon.

Graph 3

Graph 3 is interesting graph that shows the number of covid19 tests administered versus the number of cases. The trend is roughly linear showing that ~2.5% of tests are positive.

There are two interesting, and possibly connected features. The first is an increase of the positive test rate with deviation of the linear trend near 5,000 tests. This appears to indicate an increase in infection rate. One reason for this is the tests may have become more localized to people who were likely sick as testing supplies dwindled.

The upturn is followed by a glut of tests (this happened on March 23rd) followed by a return to the initial linear trend. These deviations show the sensitivity of the reported data to the amount of testing available. Obviously, the more widely available testing becomes the better the idea we have of covid-19's impact on and beyond Minnesota.

Graph 4

Graph 4 shows the number of cases in each county as defined by the population density. Counties to the far right are Ramsey, Hennepin and Dakota. There is a weak trend with population density, BUT there is a lot of incomplete information. For example, the availability of rural versus urban testing is unclear. Also, there are a lot of single cases in a large range of densities. Some Minnesota counties are very large with moderate sized population centers(e.g. St. Louis county), this may skew the data. More work is needed here.

Graph 5

Graph 5 shows the approximate number of ICU beds remaining in Minnesota as a function of the date. There are approximately 250 total beds. A linear fit to the data shows that there are about 10 days left until all ICU beds are full as of April 3rd. Note, a major accident or such could drastically reduce the bed count.

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